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Macro Unit 1 AP Econ in the News

Jonathan Lau: Zimbabwe inflation now 66,000 percent
The official rate of annual inflation in Zimbabwe tripled in the last month to more than 66%. Only a few months ago, the inflation rate was just at 8,000%, which tells you just how fast Zimbabwe is developing and how it can not deal with it effectively. As we have all learned in this past unit, inflation results in a rise in prices and a reduction in puchasing power. The type of inflation in Zimbabwe's case seems to be demand-pull inflation, which means that firms can not repond to the excessive demands by increasing output, so it increases prices. In fact, The National Incomes and Prices Commission sharply increased prices of corn, sugar, bread and other basics in a bid to restore viable operations by producers and return the goods to empty shelves.

Jessica Chiang: China Counting the Cost of Snow Crisis
As we all know, it SNOWED in Shanghai...a LOT! However, while we were all having fun, missing school, and having snowball fights, the rest of China were suffering from shortage of coal, extreme cold weather, and lack of electricity. The freakish weather killed many people as well as major powerlines, which then stopped the trains from travelling. Basically, it was absolute chaos, especially since it was Chinese New Year. China lost $7.5 billion due to the snow storms, and the stocks plummeted like crazy. However, economists believe that China's economy, although hurt in the short term, will not be harmed permanently; China's economy will continue to grow. Also, this is totally unrelated to the article, but my Dad believes that even if China's economy WAS hurt, the Chinese government would work extra hard to improve the economy again because they don't want to lose face. They want to show the rest of the world that a "small" snow storm won't hurt China's economy.

Xu, Andy: Frozen Assets I believe from the title, this article from the Economist website defines some of the problems China, specifically, the southern chinese province of Guangxi, is experiencing with its weather conditions. I have a lot to say about this topic, but just a few points here: 1) The privatization of the Chinese railway system may improve the shortage condition of train seats, improve train technology in dealing with severe weather conditions following competition, however, that's probably not going to happen in the next few decades. 2) The people at the Guangzhou train station should seriously consider whether they should be going home for Chinese New Year with their villagers in rural China. Microeconomically speaking, I would consider the cost of waiting in the train station, and travelling of the span of 10 days of snow greater than the benefit of feasting with family and villagers. I would suggest that these imgrant workers seek to return home some other time. Obviously, most of the people would respond to this suggestion with bombastic remarks such as "these are the only 10 days we have off for the whole year" or "my village of 2000 people in Sichuan is depends on the salary I earn here in Guangzhou" or "I think visiting my family worth [dying for]".

Judy Chen:
Recession to be longer than usual: UMich This article talks about the recession in USA. It first mentions University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and quotes from Conference Board. It indicates that after Americans got hit from a housing downturn to excess borrowing, things will get worse before they get better. Therefore, it suggests that the consumers should take steps to stabilize their finance. It also mentions that the rising wealth gap would lead to “two Americas”- the middle income Americans and low income Americans. In conclusion, “the negative impact will grow as home prices continue to fall in the year ahead".

James Tsao: Recessions not that Big a Deal?
This article provided by a Deloitte contains analysis of different factors that could have caused the frequent recessions that takes place in today’s market. In the article by Carl Steidtmann, research is composed on potential factors that can cause the market to plummet, including rising oil prices, declining value of the U.S dollar, slower growth, higher inflation, and housing prices. The article also tries to derive trends from stock markets and bond markets, referring to them as forecasts of recessions. After analyzing each factor, Steidtmann draws the conclusion that these factors are only minor and that certain recessions are just, as Herbert Hoover says, a “a modest depression on the road to greater prosperity.

Helen Chu: China's Unemployment Challenge
This article talks about the unemployment problem in China, especially Shanghai, and how the government is trying to tackle it. Even though China's reforms have improved the productive and allocative efficiency of the economy, this also means more structural unemployment. As one professor says, "There are new jobs in Shanghai now - but they're usually for technically skilled workers, and the competition is very intense," the older generation is facing a growing problem of getting left behind by the intense digitial revolution. Early retirement is another problem caused by cyclical unemployment , where people well below the age of 60 are getting laid off due to poor business performance. The government is trying to alleviate this problem by providing tax breaks, financial rewards, and loan guarantees to labor-intensive businesses that hire laid-off workers. Not only does it tie in with our last unit of government intervention, this article shows how cyclical and structural unemployment can work together to create a huge problem for society.

Dana Yeon: Claims for Unemployment Benefits Decline
A recent report tells how even though the unemployment rate has risen, the number of applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week. This article further goes on to delve into the issues of recent American recession and how it will not only effect employment (or rather unemployment), but also America's GDP. According to this article, there will be great job cuts over the next few months as demand slows. Macy's department stores alone will cut 2,300 jobs as well as cut back on hiring. This cyclical unemployment, or unemployment that is caused by a decline in total spending, will ultimately lead to slower economic growth as well. This is clearly visible as growth rate has stalled at 0.6% from the three last months of last year (according to the rule of seventy, if this anemic growth continues, the U.S. economy will requre nearly 117 years to double its real GDP). Finally, some economists have even predicted that GDP will turn negative in the current quarter. This of course, does not mean that America wil have negative GDP. It means that the GDP gap will turn negative as actual GDP is less than potential GDP. As for now, let's just hope that the recession doesn't last too long (as even though some economists speculate the phenomena of "decoupling," recoupling is more likely to take place).

Alex Goldman: White House Does Not See a Recession
This New York Times article reveals that the
White House predictedthe economy would escape a recession and that unemployment would remain low this year, though it acknowledged that growth had already slowed. The report on predicted that business investment growth and job growth are both likely to remain “solid” in 2008, andnoted that exports have climbed sharply in part because the dollar has declined in value against many major currencies in the last several years. Despite the optimism of the administration officials, Wall Street analysts have a bleak view of the future.

Yun Qi Mok:
Great economic recession is in store for USA
This arrticle compares the reaction of the Chinese and American government to the economic crisis occuring throughout the world. It also discusses the stock market crash and the flurry of selling in both nations. According to Alexander Timoshik, the Chinese government was quick to intervene in the situation, as when" the stock market had been soaring, the government had warned banks about improper loans to finance stock speculation." In the US, however, "the market is expecting that the Commerce Department will say that GDP grew 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter." Both nations clearly are fearing for the worse, and Greenspan "warned that the U.S. budget deficit, which for 2006 fell to $247.7 billion, the lowest in four years, remains a concern." No matter what people say, the US's future prospect are not bright.


Kevin Huang: The U.S. a Third World Country?
Business Week journalist Bruce Nussbaum gives us his take on the state of the U.S. economy. Outlook not so good. Countries that have outsourced to cheap labor countries such as the US, Japan, and the UK will be suffering because their economy will start falling into a recession as the US has shown evidence of and demand for goods and services from these countries will go down as cheaper, better products are being produced in Asia. Thus the demand for labor will go down in these markets and the price of workers will also be lower. Countries like the US, Japan and the UK could essentialy become cheap labor markets in the future.

Jeewon Oh: Why job market is even worse than you think
A government report in January presented that the number of Americans out of work for at least six months is rising to the point that could be seen as recession or a period of job contraction. Economists believe that this trend of long-term unemployment would not be going away anytime soon. In 2007, 17.6% of those who were unemployed had been out of work for six months or more, whereas only 11.4% was long-term unemployed in 2000. This is an example of frictional unemployment, as people are searching for jobs in the "unemployment pool." Although frictional unemployment is inevitable and desirable, long-term unemployment poses a risk because it cuts into household earnings and economic output. People that are long-term unemployed lose unemployment insurance benefits and deplete savings, therefore are forced to cut back spending. Due to this problem, the stimulus package is pushing for the extension of unemployment benefits beyond six months.

Katherine Yang: China's expansion fastest in 13 years
This article details China's expansion and the possible impacts of a US recession on the Chinese economy as well as the global economy. The concern is the negative impact of a US recession on Chinese and global economy. With regards to economic growth, the article talks about the growing inflation in China as a "public enemy" causing social instability over the increasing prices of meat, oil, and other necessities.

Serena Tu:Fewer Laid Off Workers File Jobless Claims
Many analysts are forecasting that the jobless claims numbers will begin rising on a sustained basis in coming months, signaling a slowing economy. The Bush administration released an updated forecast for this year, predicting the economy will grow by 3.6 percent, when measured from the fourth quarter of last year. That projection is slightly better than the 3.4 percent estimate made six months ago. so what's really happening? check it out.

Kai Lin Fu: U.S. Economy Is Dependent On Immigrant Labor
Apparently, the U.S. Economy is now dependent on the labor of immigrants. For the past 10 years immigrants account for more than half the growth in the nation's labor force. According to the Center for Labor Market Studies At Northeastern University the immigrant inflow was especially essential in the Northeast. There these new residents represented nearly all of the net increase of the labor force there.


Kevin Yeh:From Japan’s Slump in 1990s, Lessons for U.S.
Many economists see the Recession in the US as a possible rerun of the 1990's for Japan, where they too had a housing-based recession. However, they believe that if Americans act quickly with sound economic policies, the severity of the JApanese recession could be avoided. The key is quick action, rather than a denial of the situation and an attempt to ignore that the US could be a falling power, say many experts.

Jacques Zhang: The Geography of the Recession
Yes, it's our favourite word again: Recession. We've all read and heard about the economic recession that is likely to occur in the United States soon, but this article explains it further. It depicts the geographical regions of the United States to be affected different by the foreshadowed recession. For example, Montana, despite the word of recession, seems to be blooming in terms of its economy, along states near the plains and moutains. However, Michigan, for example, seems to be facing its downfall already with the crash of its car industry and being the only state with a large number of unemployment in 2007.

Richard Tu: Understanding Of Economy (recession)
This is an article elaborating on the topic of recession, it brings supporting evidence from the history and simply helps you understand recession better, and how it works, or impact the economy as a whole. In addition, on the top of this web-article, there are multiple links to different topics of "Economy" such as "Fiscal Policy", "Monetary Policy"...etc. Therefore, it is a great site to visit and learn more about economy.

Jessica Ng: Is the US in a Recession?
Although U.S. President Bush stated that "the signs are troubling", he cited from experts that the United States is NOT in a recession. But the president's word seems be to be false, as signs of a typical economy recession is appearing everywhere in the United States. This article sheds light on some of the events that are happening in the U.S., including many quotes from citizens themselves, who claim that "we can't afford the things that we normally buy" and a report shows that employers cut jobs in January for the first time in more than four years. Real income is falling dramatically, and the consumer confidence level is the lowest since the last recession in 2001/02. This all points to one single fact: the U.S. is officially in a recession, no matter what Bush is saying.

Kevin Chiu: 12 Ways to Recession-Proof Your Life
As America appears to be entering a recession, this article provides 12 ways for people to counter the "falling home values, rising unemployment, declining confidence among consumers and businesses and, lately, a swooning stock market". The article helps readers understand how the eocnomy and markets might perform when things really hit rock-bottom and advise readers to do certain things to counter the downfall.

Charlie Gao: A Roaring Economy
So we all know the world's economy is going downhill, but the little country of the Philippines are experiencing the best growth they've had in 31 years. New data show that the economy grew by 7.4% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2007, as strong domestic demand and services growth more than offset weak exports. The fourth-quarter result brought full-year real GDP growth in 2007 to a 31-year high of 7.3%. However, some say that the Philippines will not be able to maintain their high growth due to the recession in the US economy, their main country of export. The key question for the Philippines is whether domestic demand can continue to support growth if a US recession hits exports hard. We just have to see how the country adapts and if they can maintain their growth amidst the global economic plummet.

Chan Min Park: SKorea to grow 6 percent a year under new president - Goldman Sachs
South Korea recently had presidential elections and the new president is Lee-Myung-Bak. He is a businessman turned politician and therefore his biggest weapon in the elections was economy. Everybody believes that he will be the one to save Korea's economy. Therefore that's why it could be interesting for us to see the economic changes that will happen in South Korea in the next couple of years. They said that their target for GDP growth is 6 percent per year and the new president is going to do that by "removing tight government controls in various sectors of the economy and promoting more economic freedom and competition in the market. "

Alice Su: Snowbound China - Megaphone Apology
This article discusses the significance (or lack thereof) of recent apologies made by China's prime minister Wen JiaBao to victims of the nations snowstorms, freezing and crowded in trainstations and the like throughout the nation. More importantly, however, it delves into the ways that China's government policy failures have exacerbated the situation of the snow. For example, electricity shortages throughout China were worsened because of a government reform that put coal on the free market but continued to keep electricity prices fixed, leading to the result that producers couldn't shift any of the extra cost to consumers and thus had to maintain low stocks of electricity... in the face of a disaster like the snowstorms, their electrical power was totally incapable of holding up. China's fears of price inflation have induced the imposition of many administrative price controls; as a result, the negative effects of trying to mess with the business cycle are becoming more and more apparent.

Jeff Ye: Will Longer Unemployment Benefits Help the Economy More than Tax Rebate Checks?
According to a majority of the senators, providing three to six months of extra unemployment checks will do more good in bringing the country out of recession than printing tax rebate checks. This is partially due to the high unemployment rates, 5% in december, being the highest since right after Septemeber 11. Recently, the number of people filing applications for unemployment benefits jumped from 69, 000, to 375,000 in a week. By giving more benefits to the unemployed, there will be more consumer spending which will stimulate the economy and help the current recession.

Michael Chow: US homeowners 'to get extra help'
In this article it mentions how, Six major US banks are expected to announce plans to offer more help to homeowners struggling with mortgages. Bank of America, Citigroup, Countrywide Financial, JP Morgan Chase, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo are reported to be taking part in "Project Lifeline".Under the plan homeowners will be given 30 days extra to renegotiate their mortgage payments.


Nicole Wong:GM offers buyouts to all U.S. hourly workers
A major car company, General Motors, has had to cut costs and are therefore letting go of several of their employees. The wages paid to all their workers are simply too high for the company to retain.This is an example of frictional unemployment, as these employees' skills at motor companies are still salable and are not yet out-of-date. However, with the decrease in labour costs, how badly will output levels decrease?

Jack Lo: Inflation in the Middle East
Prices of everything are rising everywhere. Although oil exporting companies are benefitting from this inflation, the general public isn't doing so well against the rise in prices of basic essentials such as food and energy. In countries such as Jordan, the fiscal burden is too unsustainable and the government has announced that it will cut all subsidies. To compensate, they have proposed a payment package for low-income households. Won't this new policy just sustain the price pressure in the economy longer?

Tim Chu: 'If you don't take a job as a prostitute, we can stop your benefits.'
Even thought this article was from a while ago (2005 to be exact), I still found it quite interesting...not because it's about prostitutes mind you. The article focuses on the legalization of brothels in germany and give an account of how an unemployed woman attempted to sue a job centre after being directed to a brothel. It seems like since brothels are now legalized over in germany, you will recieve cuts in your unemployment benefits if you do not take every job opportunity available. Quite harsh on moral standards, but that's what you get when you mix beer and sausages...(not meant to be dirty).

Timothy Sun: Many Believe US Already in a Recession
No surprise to all of us, right? Once again, this topic deals with the ever-so-costly housing market. Bush makes another appearance saying something false, claiming that the US is not actually in a recession, citing some analysists, but I don't really buy it. This recession will be the first since the 2001 (which really was a lot of little fluctuation) one. According to Bush, even though the nation is not in a recession, we're still having a $168 billion "rescue plan"...

Kristie Chung: China -- $4 trillion of GDP disappears
This article talks about how China's economy is smaller than previously thought. Instead of being the $10 trillion economy, it is actually a $6 trillion economy. When the World Bank went back to review its calcuations in China's GDP, it discovered that China's domestic prices have a smaller difference to those in countries like the United States than previously thought. Thus the purchasing power is less than expected. As a result of the new adjustments, $4 trillion of China's GDP disappeared.

Sharon Li:
Jobs Growth Slid in July, Echoing Drift
This article describes the decline in the number of jobs offered. Unemployment rose from 4.5% to 4.6% on August 2007. The housing market is especially of concern because of its influence on credit markets, and for its sharp drops in the stock market. On the other hand, wages are up 1.4% (accounting for inflation), but nominal wages fell and inflation continued to rise which roused further concern with an overall fall in real wages. New jobs are also being offered less and less, with only 136,000 jobs created that year compared with a 188,000 the previous year. Slowing in productivity was also proposed as as a factor. Some say there is also a change in the way employees are being hired, "
“People aren’t in as much of a hurry to hire and fire as they used to be,” said Drew Matus, an economist with Lehman Brothers"

Annie Sung: Record rise in food prices fuels inflation
This article relates as an example of inflation in England. The prices of home-produced ingredients such as wheat for bread are rising in double digit percentages, a whopping 36%, leading to the 7.5% price increase in bread. With the price of oil topping over $100 a barrel, families are now forced into high food and fuel costs. As a result, sales in retail are declining drastically as more people are unable, or unwilling, to spend more money are luxury goods. In one family run fashion chain that employs 100 people, the administration was called into an emergency meeting to try and find one buyer for its 21 shops, illustrating the potential decline in employment as a result of inflation.

Mond Gu: China's GDP grows 10.7% in 2006, fastest in 11 years
The article talks about China's economic status and situation. China's GDP has increased by 10.7% with inflation moving at 1.5%. The GDP has now reached 20.94 trillion yuan. Making China the world's fourth biggest economy. The goverment is using cooling-down meaures to avoid overheating from the rapid growth China is experiencing. Experts say China's economic future of 2007 is looking well.

Howard Jing: Budget Deficit More than Doubles
The U.S. budget deficit will be around 410 billion dollars this year. This is close to the $413 billion all time high in 2004. In order to counteract this, the government will introduce a stimulus plan that will hopefully increase spending on domestic goods. Unfortunately, the caption on the picture in the article stated that Americans will probably use the rebate to pay off personal debts, which would not stimulate GDP growth :(

Kevin Ma: U.K. January Unemployment Falls to Lowest Since 1975
This article talks about how the U.K. is experiencing increasing unemployment rate and it is the worst since 1975. The Bank of England has cut interest rates twice in three months to prevent a situation like the "housing bust" in United States. It also talks about how growth will be slowed to only 1.8 percent this year which matches the worst performance since 1992. Inflation may also accelerate to three percent. U.K. is in for a rough year.

Cassy Chang: Writers' Strike http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/tv/la-fi-strike13feb13,1,2209003.story (Help me link this with my title, can't see link in the toolbox! thanks.)
When writers go on strike, the chain reaction creates a huge loss. "The walkout, which began Nov. 5, proved to be far more economically damaging than the studios had expected, shutting down more than 60 TV shows, hampering ratings and depriving the networks of tens of millions in advertising dollars." I think this is like a simulation of a recession, where one fall leads to another. With the strike being the source, leading to unemployment (temporary) to actors and actresses, which deprives the industry of products to sell to viewers. Although the temporary unemployment does have positive effects, like it shows how much writers influence the industry and also it creates anticipation from the viewers.


Jo Lo:Chavez Threat Rankle World's Oil Prices

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's threat to America will help keep oil prices up even if he is bluffing. Oil prices around the world varied in price mainly due to Chavez's threat. With the company Exxon Mobil challenging Chavez's nationalization of the oil industry and taking the main company to court, angering Chavez who believes Exxon Mobil and Washington are working together. With the possibility of his foreign assets freezed by Washington and other governments, Chavez threatened to stop exporting oil to the US and called President Bush Mr. Danger. This may not be the only problem for the US and its flagging economy. Word has reached Washington that oil production in Nigeria, the largest exporter of oil in Africa may have to reduce up to one million barrels of oil as the country tries to battle against rebels who are trying to hurt the already fragile oil industry.

Howard Lin: Index falls on concern over snowstorms

The snowstorms, the worst in 50 years, have led to production halts at many places. The country is short on electricity and oil, and will hurt the country's economy in the short term. In the company that my father works in, one of it's factory roof fell off due to the snow, and its annoced that the total loss was around a million dollars. It would take a while for the company or the whole China to recover.
Macro Unit 1 AP Econ in the News - Welker's Wikinomics Page


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